バーナンキFRB、デフレ回避にインフレターゲット(インフレ目標)を検討

 前も何度か書いてますが、日本のメディア(時事通信)がとりあげたのでご紹介

 http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=int_30&k=2009021100145

バーナンキ米連邦準備制度理事会FRB)議長は10日、下院金融サービス委員会で証言し、望ましい物価上昇率を設定して金融政策を運営するインフレ目標の枠組みについて「建設的なステップだと思う」と述べ、改めて前向きな姿勢を示した。

 日本のネットの一部(だけでもないですが)では、相変わらずFRBは人為的なインフレを起こすためにインフレターゲットを考慮していない、といっていますが、そういう大嘘にはだまされないようにしないといけません。もし仮になんらかのデフレショックでインフレ率が目標レンジよりも下回ってしまったら、インフレ目標を設定している中央銀行は積極的に金融緩和するでしょう。そして目標レンジにインフレ率を誘導しますが、これって僕には中央銀行が「インフレをおこす」ようにみえますが、そう思えない人はもう手の施しようがありません敢えて説法するつもりもありません。

 この点についてはFOMCのメンバーであるジャネット・イエレンの最近の発言がきちんとしていますので紹介。

http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2009/0104b.html

Communication also can be important in the Fed's efforts to anchor long-term inflation expectations. As I mentioned at the outset, the odds are high that over the next few years, inflation will decline below desirable levels. It is especially important in such circumstances for the Fed to emphasize its commitment to returning inflation over time to the higher levels that are most appropriate to the attainment of its longer-term objectives. A decline in inflationary expectations when economic conditions are weak is pernicious, especially so when the federal funds rate has reached the zero bound, because any downdrift in inflation expectations leads to an updrift in real interest rates and a tightening of financial conditions.

Work by Refet Gürkaynak, Eric Swanson, and coauthors (2005, 2006) suggests that committing a central bank to a long-run inflation objective helps anchor longer-run inflation expectations in that country. Over the past few years, the FOMC has in fact taken important incremental steps toward making its longer-term inflation goals more explicit. For example, we are now publishing FOMC members' inflation forecasts for the next three years under the assumption of "appropriate monetary policy," and the publication of such forecasts has helped shape public understanding concerning the range of inflation outcomes that FOMC members regard as desirable in the longer term. Looking forward, there could be scope for the Committee to improve the clarity of these communications. I am optimistic that, by clearly communicating the Fed's commitment to low and stable inflation and by backing that commitment up with determined policy actions should the need arise, any deflationary pressures caused by the weak economy can be contained.

ご参考まで